The predictive groundwater flood map presents the probabilistic flood extents for locations of recurrent karst groundwater flooding. It consists of a series of stacked polygons at each site representing the flood extent for specific AEP's mapping floods that are expected to occur every 10, 100 and 1000 years (AEP of 0.1, 0.01, and 0.001 respectively). The map is focussed primarily (but not entirely) on flooding at seasonally inundated wetlands known as turloughs. Sites were chosen for inclusion in the predictive map based on existing turlough databases as well as manual interpretation of SAR imagery.
The mapping process tied together the observed and SAR-derived hydrograph data, hydrological modelling, stochastic weather generation and extreme value analysis to generate predictive groundwater flood maps for over 400 qualifying sites. It should be noted that not all turloughs are included in the predictive map as some sites could not be successfully monitored with SAR and/or modelled.
The historic groundwater flood map is available here.
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